India Trade — Sector & Policy Recommendations · The Decade Report Card

2014–2026: what delivered, what's open, and who to approach

The program's one-page synthesis: every major policy of the decade graded on delivered outcomes (loop verdicts for the matured era, disbursal for the PLI era, IN-FLIGHT honestly marked for 2023–26 launches), the schemes open for investment right now, and the ministries an investor should approach — ranked by open windows, delivery record and whether their portals actually work.

SYNTHESIS of the matured cohort (18 traces), PLI report card, site-verified ministry catalog, and scheme registry. Retrieved 2026-07-20; every underlying figure PRID- or portal-cited in the source bulletins.

Part 1 · The grades

Twelve years of policy, graded on outcomes

Closed loops — demand-side guarantee & procurement designs, every one: Ethanol/EBP (20% blend 5y early, ₹1.97L cr forex saved) · M-SIPS→LSEM→MPMS (mobiles: production 28×, exports 127×, imports 75%→0.02% of demand) · UJALA (LED ₹310→₹38) · MUDRA (₹40L cr) · Startup India (<500→2.07 lakh) · UDAN (74→165 airports) · FAME lineage (unbroken since 2015) · coal auctions (15 tranches) · PLI Pharma (36% disbursed, 237% investment, Penicillin-G back — the PLI family's A).

Partial-strong: Solar (capacity 3y late; manufacturing loop closed 2→100 GW ALMM) · PLI Electronics (₹15,554cr disbursed, tenure completed) · Sagarmala/DFC/rail exports (turnaround halved; EDFC done; 1,002 rail cars exported) · NIP-2012 urea (6 plants; self-sufficiency missed → NIPU) · PLI Food/Telecom/BulkDrugs/MedDev (modest real payouts).

Partial-weak: PM-KUSUM (29% of MW target) · Make in India ($667bn decade, ~$81bn plateau) · Mega Food Parks (24/41, discontinued) · PLI White Goods/Solar disbursal (₹281cr / ₹0-by-design) · PLI Drones (expired, no successor).

D–F

Laggards & the F: SATAT (50 of 5,000 plants — the register's largest miss, saved only by a mandate) · BharatNet (three redesigns, 12+ years) · PLI Auto/Steel/Textiles disbursal (₹2,378cr accelerating / ₹48cr + 24% attrition / ₹54.5cr) · PLI ACC: zero in five years — the F.

IN-FLIGHT, not graded: the 2023–26 wave (Green Hydrogen SIGHT, critical-minerals chain, RDI ₹1L cr, ELI ₹99,446cr, shipbuilding ₹69,725cr, gasification ₹37,500cr, BHAVYA, NIPU-2026, MPMS, Semicon 2.0). The cohort's honest loop timescale is ~8–10 years — but their designs are the proven A-row family: guaranteed terms, procurement, capex.

Part 2 · Open for investment now

Live windows, verified on portals (20 Jul 2026)

Window	Closes	What you get · where
PM E-DRIVE e-2W claims (MHI)	31-Jul-2026	Demand incentives via OEM portal (e-3W R/C runs to 31-Mar-2028)
UNNATI 2024 (DPIIT)	30-Sep-2026	NE capital/interest/MSLI incentives, ₹10,037cr · unnati.dpiit.gov.in
ALMM enlistment (MNRE)	List-II to 31-Dec-2026	Market access for module/cell makers · DCR portal re-opened
Coal Gasification 2026 R1 (Coal)	timeline live	Share of ₹37,500cr · RFP + pre-app conference held 16-Jul · coal.gov.in
DoP: API-CF + SMDI calls	calls live	Pharma/medtech cluster capex, Schedule-M upgradation subsidy · pharma-dept.gov.in/schemes
ECMS (MeitY) · MPMS watch	extended · TBN	Components hybrid incentives · ecms.meity.gov.in; MPMS ₹62,500cr window imminent
MoFPI stack	rolling EoIs	Cold-chain/CEFPPC 35–50% capex, PM-FME, Operation Greens claims · SAMPADA portals
AHIDF + NLM (FAHD)	open portals	3% subvention + guarantee; 50% livestock capital subsidy · udyamimitra portals
SBFAS 2.0 + SbDS (MoPSW)	standing to 2036	~14% shipbuilding contract assistance; cluster/risk proposals
NGHM CfPs (MNRE) · SATAT EoI (MoPNG)	live	Hydrogen pilots/testing; CBG offtake now demand-backed by the blending mandate
Startup stack + CGTMSE/ZED	standing	FoF 2.0 via AIFs, seed, guarantees to ₹10cr, certification subsidy
Steel R&D · NTTM research	open/rolling	Grant funding · steel.gov.in Apply link; nttm.texmin.gov.in

Part 3 · Who to approach

Ministries ranked by windows, delivery and working portals

Tier 1 — go first

DoP (best-maintained scheme section, live calls, grade-A delivery) · MeitY (A− record; ECMS live, MPMS imminent, Semicon 2.0's six pillars) · DPIIT / Invest India / NSWS (the gateway: KYA → single window across 32 ministries/34 states; UNNATI deadline; BHAVYA; startup stack; the FDI rulebook) · FAHD (the transparency benchmark — live funnels, real subvention money) · Ministry of Coal (gasification R1 open, with 15 auction tranches proving the machinery works).

Tier 2 — engage

MoFPI (multiple capex windows; PLISFPI sunsets FY27) · MNRE/SECI/IREDA (ALMM to 31-Dec; SIGHT CfPs; payouts post-commissioning by design) · MoPSW (₹69,725cr package, fresh guidelines; MDF operationalising) · Commerce/DGFT (RoDTEP/EPCG/EPM export stack) · MSME (via cgtmse.in / zed.msme.gov.in — not the ministry site).

Approach with eyes open

MHI (E-DRIVE deadlines near; ACC stalled at zero; stale pages) · Steel (24% Round-1 attrition; R1.2 MoU-stage) · Textiles (windows amended thrice in a year; verify only on pli.texmin.gov.in) · Fertilizers & Mines (NIPU-2026 and the critical-minerals chain are real money, but both departments' websites are dead/unreachable — go via Cabinet frameworks, NSWS and nodal PSUs).

Bottom line: the A-row of the decade is uniformly demand-side guarantee/procurement designs; the F-row is voluntary uptake and unpaid production promises. Entering now: the open money is capex/cluster/credit, the reliable counterparties are the ministries with working portals and delivery records, and this quarter's dated deadlines are PM E-DRIVE e-2W (31-Jul), UNNATI (30-Sep) and ALMM List-II (31-Dec-2026). Route everything through NSWS (Know Your Approvals → single window) per the investor workflow.