MoSPI/Commerce Ministry Dataset Analysis — Statistical Bulletin

Fertilisers and electronics are India's fastest-growing big-ticket imports

Full 8-year history (FY2018-19 – FY2025-26) for every 2-digit HS chapter, from the same TRADESTAT pull as the trade-balance bulletin — this time tracking each chapter's own trajectory, not just its latest-year snapshot, to separate "large" from "fast-growing."

SOURCE: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S), via tradestat.commerce.gov.in/eidb — Commodity-wise Export and Commodity-wise Import reports, 2-digit HS chapter level, US$ Million, retrieved 18 Jul 2026

Top 12 import chapters, by FY2025-26 value

Sparklines are independently scaled per chapter, to show shape of trend, not relative size.

View full 8-year table, top 12 import chapters

Which big imports are growing fastest?

Same 12 chapters as above, re-ranked by growth rate (CAGR), not size.

Fertilisers (HS31) is the fastest-growing chapter among India's dozen largest imports — +118.9% since FY2018-19 (11.8% CAGR), likely reflecting global fertiliser price shocks since 2022 on top of rising volumes. Electrical machinery (HS85) — semiconductors, components, consumer electronics — has doubled (+101.5%, 10.5% CAGR), and edible oils (HS15) are close behind (+97.9%). By contrast, mineral fuels, the single largest import by far, has grown only 21.2% over the same eight years — it's big, but not the fastest-moving part of the story.

Top 12 export chapters, by FY2025-26 value

Same treatment, export side.

Electrical machinery (HS85) is the standout export story: from $12.7bn to $54.0bn, +324% (22.9% CAGR) — by far the fastest-growing chapter on either side of the ledger, consistent with India's electronics-assembly export push. Pearls, gems & jewellery (HS71) is the one major chapter moving the wrong way for exports: -29.9% since FY2018-19, the only decliner among either top-12 list.

View full 8-year table, top 12 export chapters

Reading this against the deficit

The trade-balance bulletin elsewhere in this repo shows mineral fuels and gems/jewellery as the two largest deficit-driving chapters — but this history shows neither is where the deficit's momentum is coming from. Mineral fuels imports have grown a modest 21.2% over eight years (largely price-driven, not a structural shift), and gems/jewellery imports (+69.1%) are growing roughly in line with the broader deficit chapters.

The chapters actually accelerating — fertilisers, electrical machinery, edible oils — point to where new import dependency is building: energy-intensive fertiliser production, electronics components not yet made domestically at scale, and edible oil consumption outpacing domestic oilseed output. Electrical machinery is unusual in that it's growing fast on both sides of the ledger (imports of components, exports of assembled goods) — consistent with India importing parts for final assembly and re-export, rather than either pure import substitution or pure domestic manufacturing.

Independently corroborated by DPIIT's own 2025-26 Annual Report (not a trade-data source — it doesn't publish a balance-of-trade series — but its Industrial Entrepreneur Memorandum investment-intention data, Appendix IV): proposed domestic investment in Electricals Equipment jumped from ₹65,979 crore (2021) to ₹233,829 crore (2024), and in Fertilizers from ₹1,112 crore (2021) to ₹41,127 crore (2024) — the same two sectors flagged here as the fastest-growing high-value imports are also where India's domestic capacity-building investment is scaling up fastest, an independent confirmation from a completely different data system (industrial licensing filings, not customs data). DPIIT's "24 champion sub-sectors" programme separately names electronics and aluminium among sectors selected partly for "need for import substitution" — the same conclusion this chart reaches from the trade numbers alone.

Errata & methodology caveats
  • Growth and CAGR are computed FY2018-19 → FY2025-26 (7 growth periods over 8 fiscal years). FY2025-26 is the most recent data available (updated 19 May 2026 per source), not necessarily a complete fiscal year — treat the endpoint as provisional.
  • Sparklines use an independent y-scale per chapter — they show the shape of each chapter's trajectory, not relative size between chapters. Use the labeled FY18-19 → FY25-26 values (or the ranked list order) to compare magnitude; use the CAGR chart to compare growth rate.
  • "Top 12" is by absolute latest-year value, not by growth rate or by trade balance — a chapter can be simultaneously one of the largest imports and a shrinking one (see gems & jewellery, export side).
  • Top 12 import chapters account for 81.5% of all FY2025-26 imports; the remaining 86 chapters share the other 18.5%.
  • Same TRADESTAT pull and scraping method as the trade-balance bulletin: a Laravel/Livewire form that 405s on a cold GET, resolved by visiting the search page first for a session cookie + CSRF token, then POSTing the form (each query returns 2 fiscal years).
  • Totals cross-validated against the Commerce Ministry's TIA Portal, DGFT, and PIB; DPIIT investment-intention data used as independent corroboration, not a trade-data source. See data/trade_data_cross_validation_2026-07-18.json.