The COVID crash, the snapback, and how much the first estimate moves
Real (constant-price) GDP growth, FY2012-13 through FY2025-26, using the most-revised figure available for each year. The tick on each bar marks where MoSPI's original First Advance Estimate landed — the gap between tick and bar is how much the number moved as better data came in.
SOURCE: api.mospi.gov.in via MoSPI MCP connector · NAS dataset, indicator "GDP Growth Rate," base year 2011-12, series "Current" · retrieved 18 Jul 2026
Real GDP growth by fiscal year
Bars: latest revised estimate. Tick: First Advance Estimate, where available.
Growth (latest estimate) Contraction (latest estimate) First Advance Estimate
First Advance Estimate is MoSPI's first cut at a year's GDP growth, released about a month after the fiscal year ends, before full data is in. Latest is whatever revision — Second Advance, Provisional, First/Second/Third Revised, or Final — is the most recent one MoSPI has published for that year since. The distance between tick and bar is that year's revision so far, not a forecast error against some final truth: even "Final Estimates" can predate a later methodology change.
View full revision table (First Advance → latest, all 14 years)
Errata & data caveats
FY2025-26 is a First Advance Estimate only — the sole data point MoSPI has released for it so far. Like every other year on this chart, expect it to move; historically the first guess has shifted by as much as 2 percentage points by the time later revisions land.
The COVID-19 contraction was revised away from its worst reading: FY2020-21's First Advance Estimate was -8%; by the Third Revised Estimate it stood at -6% — still the sharpest contraction on record here, just not quite as deep as first reported.
FY2023-24 saw the largest upward revision: from a 7% First Advance Estimate to 9% by the First Revised Estimate — a bigger jump than the COVID year's revision, in the opposite direction.
FY2012-13 and FY2013-14 have no First Advance Estimate in this connector — the earliest revision stage returned for those two years starts at "Second Revised." No tick is drawn for them; that's a data gap, not a zero revision.
This chart shows real (constant-price) growth, the conventional headline "GDP growth rate." Nominal (current-price) growth — which includes inflation — is materially higher in most years and is available in the table view.
The connector's NAS indicator list endpoint (getNasIndicatorList) still throws an upstream 500 as of this bulletin, same as noted before — but the data endpoint used here works fine, through FY2025-26.